Last September, movie fans were introduced to Billy Beane, the General Manager of the Oakland A's. The Brad Pitt film, based on the Michael Lewis book 'Moneyball: The Art of Winning an Unfair Game', describes how Oakland won 103 games in 2002 despite operating with a limited budget and losing three key players to free agency. The timing of the movie release was interesting. During the same month as the film's release, a real life Moneyball story was developing in the American League. It did not involve Billy Beane's A's, but Andrew Friedman's Tampa Bay Rays. The Rays erased a 9-game deficit that September to earn their third playoff berth in four years. The Rays accomplished that feat despite playing in the same division as the New York Yankees and Boston Red Sox, the two teams that boast the highest payrolls in baseball. If Hollywood produced a sequel to Moneyball, the Rays would be more deserving of the silver screen than Oakland. How have the Rays been able to achieve this success? I will explain why the Rays' model of success is sustainable as opposed to the fleeting success of the A's.
The 'Secret' of the A's Success - Starting Pitching
The Oakland A's made a great run from 1999 to 2004 and this cannot be denied. However, the movie ignores the fact that Oakland had the best starting rotation in baseball. Mark Mulder, Tim Hudson, and Barry Zito were consistent and effective. More importantly, they were young and their salaries were under team control until they earned their right to free agency. When those three starting pitchers moved on to teams that could pay fair market value, the A's were unable to replace that effective rotation as a whole. Although young pitchers Dan Haren and Rich Harden were very effective in their time with Oakland, the rotation lost its ability to carry the team to the postseason.
The Rays are built for the long haul. They have stockpiled and developed a talented stable of starting pitchers. The Rays won their first American League pennant in 2008 with a rotation consisting of Scott Kazmir, James Shields, Matt Garza, Andy Sonnanstine, and Edwin Jackson. When the Rays made their dramatic playoff run in 2011, only James Shields remained. Andrew Friedman and the Rays organization have been able to maintain this success on the mound despite a high roster turnover. Each season a new young pitcher is seemingly groomed for the starting rotation. Remarkably the younger pitchers have been more effective than the pitcher they replaced. When Edwin Jackson was traded for current outfielder Matt Joyce after the 2008 season, Jeff Niemann was ready to step into the rotation. When current ace David Price proved that he was ready for the big leagues, he filled Andy Sonnanstine's spot. When Scott Kazmir lost effectiveness due to injury, his salary was moved to the Angels and he was replaced by a more effective and affordable Wade Davis. When the Cubs offered a package of prospects for Matt Garza, he was replaced in the rotation by Jeremy Hellickson, the winner of the American League Rookie of the Year award last season. In 2012, top prospect Matt Moore will replace either Wade Davis or Jeff Niemann. Alex Cobb, who pitched effectively in his 9 starts as an injury replacement, is the 7th starting pitcher on the depth chart. If Cobb pitched for any other team in baseball, he likely would begin 2012 in the starting rotation. With a strong pitching staff that is under team control for several years down the road, the Rays' success is more likely to be sustainable. The Oakland A's, in contrast, seemingly raised the white flag in 2012 by trading away effective young pitchers Trevor Caudill and Gio Gonzalez. Billy Beane may return the A's to prominence, but he is beginning a rebuilding project and will be competing in a tough American League West with the Texas Rangers and Los Angeles Angels of Anaheim.
A Tale of Two Carlos Penas
There's something peculiar about Moneyball's portrayal of Carlos Pena. If you believe the Moneyball narrative, then you believe that Billy Beane courted Scott Hatteberg to replace Jason Giambi at 1B in 2002. That eventually happened, but not without a subplot that is curiously absent from the book and film. Just two weeks after the Hatteberg acquisition, Billy Beane made a multi-player trade with the Rangers to acquire Carlos Pena, Baseball America's 5th ranked prospect. Why aren't moviegoers shown the thrilling scene when Billy Beane finalizes the Carlos Pena trade? The answer is simple. Carlos Pena struggled in Oakland and needed to be written out of the book and movie. Like Moneyball 'stars' Jeremy Giambi, David Justice, and Scott Hatteberg, Carlos Pena gets on base a lot. In 2001, the season before the trade, Carlos had an impressive on-base percentage of .408 and hit a combined 26 home runs in Triple-A and the major leagues. Billy Beane's desire to acquire Pena as a younger and cheaper replacement for Jason Giambi certainly aligns with the Moneyball narrative. Unfortunately for Pena, he was dispatched to Triple-A in late May and then traded to the Detroit Tigers in July.
Carlos Pena's quick exit from Oakland highlights another striking difference between Billy Beane and the Tampa Bay Rays, and that is the virtue of patience. Carlos Pena is a streaky hitter. When Pena is dialed in at the plate and slugging home runs in bunches, he has the ability to carry a team offensively. However, he is prone to extended slumps where the hits are few and the strikeouts are high. The Oakland A's saw the two extremes of Carlos Pena during his brief stay with the team. In April of 2002, Carlos Pena got off to a hot start, hitting 7 home runs that month with an impressive slugging percentage of .552. Pena then failed to hit a home run in May and his slugging percentage plummeted to .419. He was quickly demoted to the minors and traded about six weeks later. Carlos Pena's four years with the Rays were much different. He slugged 46 home runs in 2007 to win the Comeback Player of the Year Award, and his success carried into 2008 when he helped lead the Rays to the World Series. Rays fans can certainly attest to Pena's inconsistency. He had streaks of good fortune followed by bouts of ineffectiveness, especially in 2009 and 2010. Despite the maddening slumps, the Rays organization has shown great patience and has resisted the catcalls to banish Pena to the bench. Pena rewarded the Rays with 4 productive seasons and a couple of division titles, and he thought highly enough of the organization to return as a free agent in 2012. Pena's time with Oakland was merely a footnote in his career, but his Tampa Bay chapter is still being written. It is also important to note that Scott Hatteberg hit only 49 home runs, scored 260 runs and had 263 RBI in his 4 seasons with Oakland. Hatteberg's on-base percentage was .355 and his slugging percentage was .396. By comparison, Carlos Pena hit 144 home runs, scored 330 runs and had 407 RBI in his 4 seasons with Tampa Bay. Pena, who was disfavored by Billy Beane because he didn't get on base as frequently as Hatteberg, had a superior on-base percentage of .368 and slugging percentage of .516 in his 4 seasons with the Rays.
The Boston Red Sox Played Moneyball? Really?
At the end of the film, we are told that Moneyball concepts helped the Boston Red Sox win the World Series in 2004 and 2007. Nothing could be further from the truth. The Boston Red Sox had a final payroll of $130,395,386 in 2004 (2nd in the major leagues to the Yankees) and $155,402,595 in 2007 (also 2nd to the Yankees). It's called Moneyball because the A's didn't have the money to compete with the Yankees and Red Sox, and the inclusion of Johnny Damon in the main story line is perplexing. The story line is built around the fact that the A's could not afford to retain impending free agents Jason Giambi, Johnny Damon, and Jason Isringhausen. The film fails to acknowledge that Johnny Damon signed with the deep-pocketed Red Sox and played an integral part in Boston's championship of 2004. The savvy baseball fan and moviegoer is left to ask, what exactly is Moneyball anyway? Is it allowing a free agent like Johnny Damon to leave via free agency because you can't afford him, or is it the concept of signing a free agent like Johnny Damon because you can afford him. The movie can't have it both ways.
If the producers wanted to cite a true example of a 'have-not' team competing on the same stage as the 'haves', they needed to look no further than the 2003 Florida Marlins. The Marlins won the World Series with a final payroll of $63,281,152 by defeating the New York Yankees (Billy Beane's nemesis) with a final payroll of $180,322,403.
The Joy and Camaraderie in Tampa Bay vs. The Pain and Anguish of Moneyball
For any baseball fan who has paid attention to the Tampa Bay Rays organization recently, there is an amazing positive energy around the ball club. This positive attitude begins at the top of the organization, from Principal Owner Stuart Sternberg to President Matthew Silverman to Andrew Friedman, the Sr. Vice President of Baseball Operations. But a baseball team needs an effective field general to carry out the team's mission and to get the most out of their players. The Rays found the right man for that task. He is Joe Maddon, the two-time manager of the year. Maddon's positive style makes him the ideal leader of this group of young men. Because the Rays have a limited payroll, they must show patience in order to coax the best performances out of their players. Teams with greater payroll flexibility have the ability to make impulsive trades to fill holes and address weaknesses at the mid-season trade deadline. The Rays do not have that luxury. For the most part, the Rays must win with the players who are in the organization during spring training. If a mid-season roster move is made, it is typically to call up a minor league prospect who is ready to help the team right now. Joe Maddon understands that he is leading men, and he treats them with the respect that they deserve as human beings and professionals. Maddon promotes a positive team environment by creating themed road trips. It is all an important part of the team-building experience. Maddon also has developed catchy slogans such as 2008's 9=8 slogan, meaning that 9 players playing 9 innings together can be one of the 8 teams in the playoffs. This camaraderie helps a team forge through a long 162-game season together, especially during the dog days of summer when fatigue and frustration can set in and destroy a group. This positive attitude helps keep the clubhouse loose, and the fruits of Maddon's leadership skills are evident on the field. There are several photos of the Rays that capture a joyful exuberance and a buy-in toward a larger goal. A special memory took place on the final night of the 2011 season, when it appeared that the Rays' amazing pennant run might end in disappointment. The Rays erased a 7 run deficit against the Yankees in dramatic fashion, as pinch-hitter Dan Johnson hit a home run in the bottom of the 9th to tie the game. Evan Longoria then launched the Rays into the playoffs by hitting a game-winning home run down the left-field line. The players and the community will never forget those moments.
The Moneyball movie, by contrast, provides fans with little joy or camaraderie. Billy Beane appears to be playing his own game with Peter Brand and their computer. The entire baseball establishment is the opponent. Beane has disagreements with his scouts and is never on the same page with manager Art Howe. Moneyball is a Hollywood movie with inaccuracies and exaggerations, but it is uncomfortable to see the way Art Howe is portrayed in the film. A casual moviegoer would believe that Howe was a hindrance to the success of the ball club, rather than a leader of men in the dugout. The film is also absent of the magical moments that tell the story of a pennant race. The baseball scenes in Bad News Bears and Naked Gun are more vivid and memorable than the baseball scenes in Moneyball. One of the few dramatic baseball moments in Moneyball is when Scott Hatteberg hits a walk-off home run to extend the A's long winning streak. But that moment simply serves as a reminder that Billy Beane uncovered the hidden talents of an undervalued ballplayer. There is no mention of the baseball contributions of the A's Miguel Tejada, the winner of the 2002 American League MVP award, or of Eric Chavez, who hit 34 home runs and won a Gold Glove. Tejada and Chavez were acquired by the team before Billy Beane became the General Manager. Therefore, their value to the club was minimized in the movie. On the other hand, the Tampa Bay Rays are a true team and everyone shares the spotlight equally. There are no public efforts to minimize the contributions of an executive, a scout, a manager, coach, or player.
It is these reasons why the Rays would be the perfect subject for a Moneyball sequel. But if you can't wait for Hollywood to begin casting the film (Matthew Broderick as Andrew Friedman? Drew Carey as Joe Maddon?), just buy some peanuts and Cracker Jack and sit back and enjoy the Tampa Bay Rays in 2012. This thrilling story is set for release on April 6 and will hopefully end in late October with a World Series championship celebration in Tropicana Field.
