ESPN recently reported that Cleveland Indians pitcher Fausto Carmona was arrested by authorities in the Dominican Republic under accusations that he used a false identity to try to obtain a U.S. visa. Since then, we have learned that Carmona's actual name is Roberto Hernandez Heredia, and the family of the real Fausto Carmona had been monetarily compensated by Hernandez in exchange for use of his identity. It has also been revealed that Hernandez is three years older than his assumed age. That would make him 31 years of age rather than 28. Some sports fans have reacted to this news with collective indifference, but lying about one's age can reap substantial professional and monetary benefits.
Young baseball players are in a race of sorts. They are racing to get to the major leagues as quickly as possible. There are obvious financial benefits to playing on a major league roster. If a player is talented enough to make it to the major leagues and stay there, then they eventually will become eligible for arbitration. The player can then earn incremental salary increases until becoming a free agent. They can take their talents to the open market and earn whatever another team is willing to pay. Since teams are hesitant to invest a great deal of money or years in an older player, the optimal way for a player to earn a large amount of money is to get to the major leagues at an early age. Therefore, if some unscrupulous players can find a method to make it appear that they are younger than their actual age, some players will game the system. Hopefully, the examples of Roberto Hernandez Heredia, Juan Oviedo (formerly known as Leo Nunez), Miguel Tejada and others are only isolated incidents.
Baseball scouts are always on the lookout for teenage prospects who have the potential to play at the highest level. If two players have similar abilities but one player is three years older than the other, the scouts would devote more resources and show more patience toward the younger player. Ability is the key factor in determining which player is a major league 'prospect', but age is certainly as factor as well. A younger player will be seen as having a higher 'ceiling', or more room for growth and improvement. For example, the player formerly known as Fausto Carmona was purported to be 19 years of age when he pitched in the South Atlantic League (Single A Sally League). He had a fine season at that level, and his ability and his young age resulted in Carmona's rated as the #76 Minor League Prospect by Baseball America. If it was known that Carmona was 22 rather than 19, it is likely that he would not crack the top 100.
A closer look at the 18 and 19 year pitchers in the 2003 South Atlantic League reveals that over 40% of those teenage pitchers eventually made it to the major leagues (13 of 31). However, Carmona's real age was 22. Of the 94 Sally League pitchers in 2003 who were listed at 22 years of age by www.baseball-reference.com, only 18 (fewer than 25%) eventually threw a pitch in the major leagues. It would therefore appear that a player's path to the major leagues would be greased more quickly if they were thought to be younger.
Not only did the teenage Sally League pitcher earn eventual major league promotions at a higher rate, their dollars earned is substantially higher .... almost ridiculously higher. The 22-year old Salley League pitchers who eventually played in the majors would only be known to the most die-hard baseball fan. This list includes Juan Lara, Jose Capellan, Jason Waddell, Bryan Bullington, Jailen Peguero, Mark McLemore, Jesse Carlson, Anderson Garcia, Jeff Ridgway, Alfredo Simon, Ehren Wasserman, Sean Tracey, Darren Clarke, Darrell Rasner, Mike O'Connor, and Chris Smith. The other two pitchers who were 22 years of age in the 2003 Sally League who earned over a million dollars during their major league career are John Maine ($6,741,000) and Daniel Cabrera ($8,010,000). Incidentally, both pitchers are still looking for work. It will be difficult for them since they have already turned 30.
The 18 and 19 year old prospects who pitched in the Salley League that season is a virtual who's who list of the game's finest young pitchers. They are also well-compensated. The Marlins' Josh Johnson is on that list, and he will earn over 40-million dollars by the end of 2013. Matt Cain is on that list also. He just agreed to a contract with San Francisco worth $15 million. By the end of the 2012 season, Cain will have earned over 30-million dollars throughout the course of his career. Others who have earned (or will earn) over 30-million dollars are Scott Kazmir, Cole Hamels, and Jon Lester.
If you are Fausto Carmona (or Roberto Hernandez Heredia) which group would you rather be in? Would you want to be included in a group of pitchers who barely made it to the major leagues, or would you want to be seen as a young, can't miss prospect? A fake identity can do that for you. Instead of having a ball club scrutinize you as a 22 year old ballplayer (he's got decent stuff, but he he's already reached his ceiling), you can have scouts salivate over your potential (he's dominating Single-A, and he's only 19 years old). Through the use of identity theft, Carmona went from being one of the oldest pitcher on his Single-A team to being the youngest. That type of deception, if undetected, can certainly help your career advancement. Prior to the 2012 season, Carmona had earned over 15-million dollars playing Major League Baseball. In this offseason, he signed a deal which would give him 7-million in 2012, with the Indians holding team options in 2013 (9-million) and 2014 (12 million).
Which leads to my final point. Sometimes it isn't enough to prove that you are a star. You must also prove that you are a star at a young age. If you look at the 13 most lucrative free agent contracts in the history of the game, they were all signed by players who had debuted in the major leagues before their 23rd birthday. There are a few reasons for this. The most obvious reason is that the great players show their greatness at a young age, and they are paid their true value in an open market. A related reason is the fact that such players who make an early major league debut are more likely to hit the free agency market when they are in their mid-to-late twenties. Such stars are in a great position to take full advantage of the free agency market because they still have many productive years. This provides an added incentive for a dishonest player to game the system.
In closing, there have been two glaring ways in which a baseball player can cheat the system on the front end and the back end of their careers. The rampant use of steroids and performance-enhancing drugs assisted several players in extending their careers. The increase in home runs helped these players make substantial amounts of money through their careers, and they earned money in their late 30s and early 40s that they never would have earned without this artificial enhancement. By the same token, dishonest players have cheated the system on the front end of their careers and throughout by lying about their age. This is a serious problem because the players who are honest about their age and who have avoided performance-enhancers are at a disadvantage. It is likely that honest minor leaguers missed out on opportunities because a ball club chose to promote a 'younger' player with more potential. It is also highly likely that clean players lost jobs at the major league level because they did not have the 'power' potential of a player who benefited from the use of performance-enhancers. That is why it is important for Major League Baseball to implement strong measures to ensure the integrity of the game. To that end, a firm stance must be taken against the former Fausto Carmona and Leo Nunez.
Sunday, January 22, 2012
Monday, January 16, 2012
A Black QB in 1968 - Marlin Briscoe's Struggle
1968 was a tumultuous time in our nation. Dr. Martin Luther King, Jr. was assassinated on April 4th. Presidential candidate Robert F. Kennedy was assassinated on June 5th, and there were riots at the Democratic convention in late August. In October of that year, African-American athletes Tommie Smith and John Carlos gave the 'Black Power" salute at the Mexico City Olympics.
In the fall of 1968, Marlin Briscoe was waging a lesser known battle - the battle to become a starting quarterback in the American Football League (AFL). Briscoe, who had been selected by the Denver Broncos out of the University of Nebraska-Omaha in the 14th round of the 1968 draft, was actually selected as a defensive back. However, he requested a three-day trial at the quarterback position. Although Briscoe didn't believe he would get a 'fair shake', he relished the opportunity to showcase his skills. Marlin "The Magician" got his chance to play quarterback in his rookie year, mainly out of necessity. The Denver Broncos of the late '60s were a bad football team, and Briscoe made the most of his opportunity.
Marlin Briscoe finished his rookie season with 93 completions on 224 attempts for 1,589 yards. His 17.1 yards per completion led the AFL, and he threw 14 touchdown passes and only 13 interceptions. Those statistics may not seem impressive in today's age of inflated video game statistics, but Briscoe was only one of four AFL quarterbacks to throw more TDs than interceptions in 1968. The other three were Daryle Lamonica and Hall of Famers Len Dawson and Bob Griese. Even Joe Namath, who later that season would make good on his Super Bowl 'guarantee', threw more interceptions than touchdowns. Although Marlin Briscoe had a low completion percentage, that was also a sign of the times. In the 1968 AFL, only Len Dawson and Bob Griese completed more than 50% of their passes. Briscoe also chipped in with 308 rushing yards (on only 41 attempts) and 3 rushing touchdowns. At that point in the history of the Denver Broncos, Marlin Briscoe was the ONLY QB in franchise history to finish a season with more passing TDs than interceptions, and he did it as a rookie. In 1962, Denver sent a QB to the AFL All-Star game (Frank Tripucka), and even in that season he tossed 25 interceptions compared to 17 TDs.
After such a promising rookie season, Marlin Briscoe surely had proven himself. He would be invited back in 1969 to battle for the starting quarterback position, right? Sadly, the answer was a resounding no. Briscoe would not receive a quarterbacking opportunity with Denver, so he asked for his release prior to the 1969 season. Marlin signed with the Buffalo Bills in 1969 to play the position of flanker/wide receiver. He caught 32 passes in 1969 and earned a spot on the 1970 Pro Bowl team when he broke the 1,000 yard barrier on 57 catches and scored 8 TDs. Miami Dolphins fans remember Marlin Briscoe as a key performer on the Super Bowl teams of the early 1970s. Briscoe signed with Miami before the 1972 undefeated season and he led the Dolphins in receptions in their 1973 championship season. He only threw 9 passes in his career after his promising rookie season.
Although Marlin Briscoe was part of a perfect season and earned two Super Bowl rings, one could only wonder what was going through his mind when he saw that only white quarterbacks were given an opportunity to play the position. When Briscoe signed with Miami, he was not given an opportunity to play the position. He wasn't even the 2nd string quarterback. Earl Morrall was signed to fill that position. Briscoe was not even considered as the 3rd string quarterback. That honor went to the undrafted Jim Del Gaizo.
We could only imagine the frustration that Marlin Briscoe could have felt when he saw that the Denver Broncos signed Pete Liske to be the backup quarterback in 1969. After all, hadn't Briscoe shown enough during his rookie season to deserve a chance to compete? For the record, Briscoe says that the incumbent starting QB, Steve Tensi, was a good man. He apologized to Marlin Briscoe later and said there was nothing he could do. But what about the decision to replace Briscoe with Pete Liske? Liske's only pro experience prior to 1969 was FIVE years earlier, when he went 9 for 18 for 55 yards (and 2 interceptions) for the 1964 New York Jets. Pete Liske was a 27 year old man who had been out of football for 5 years and who had never thrown a TD pass, but he ultimately became Steve Tensi's backup. Fortunately for Pete Liske, his skin color was white.
What was going through Marlin Briscoe's mind when he saw white QBs fail but continue to receive opportunities? Marty Domres, Terry Hanratty, and Bobby Douglass were drafted in 1969 but had poor rookie seasons. These white QBs, however, remained in the NFL for several years. Bobby Douglass, in particular, was a highly inaccurate quarterback and was a much better runner than passer. Yet he survived in the NFL for ten years without being forced to change positions. The NFL draft in 1969 is noteworthy for another reason. There is only one quarterback from that draft who earned a Pro Bowl berth. That was James Harris, a black quarterback who was the 7th QB selected, and he was not taken until the 8th round. It took James Harris five seasons before he was given an opportunity to earn a starting job. Domres, Hanratty, and Douglass did not have to wait nearly as long to receive their chance.
There were many black quarterbacks who paved the way for today's current starters - James Harris, Joe Gilliam, Vince Evans, Doug Williams, and then Warren Moon. But we must not forget Marlin Briscoe, the man who attempted to pave the way but ran into a roadblock.
Sources for this blog: http://www.20yardline.com/current/marlin-briscoe-the-first-black-nfl-starting-quarterback.html and http://www.pro-football-reference.com/ Also, I eagerly await this upcoming film: http://www.marlinbriscoemovie.com/
In the fall of 1968, Marlin Briscoe was waging a lesser known battle - the battle to become a starting quarterback in the American Football League (AFL). Briscoe, who had been selected by the Denver Broncos out of the University of Nebraska-Omaha in the 14th round of the 1968 draft, was actually selected as a defensive back. However, he requested a three-day trial at the quarterback position. Although Briscoe didn't believe he would get a 'fair shake', he relished the opportunity to showcase his skills. Marlin "The Magician" got his chance to play quarterback in his rookie year, mainly out of necessity. The Denver Broncos of the late '60s were a bad football team, and Briscoe made the most of his opportunity.
Marlin Briscoe finished his rookie season with 93 completions on 224 attempts for 1,589 yards. His 17.1 yards per completion led the AFL, and he threw 14 touchdown passes and only 13 interceptions. Those statistics may not seem impressive in today's age of inflated video game statistics, but Briscoe was only one of four AFL quarterbacks to throw more TDs than interceptions in 1968. The other three were Daryle Lamonica and Hall of Famers Len Dawson and Bob Griese. Even Joe Namath, who later that season would make good on his Super Bowl 'guarantee', threw more interceptions than touchdowns. Although Marlin Briscoe had a low completion percentage, that was also a sign of the times. In the 1968 AFL, only Len Dawson and Bob Griese completed more than 50% of their passes. Briscoe also chipped in with 308 rushing yards (on only 41 attempts) and 3 rushing touchdowns. At that point in the history of the Denver Broncos, Marlin Briscoe was the ONLY QB in franchise history to finish a season with more passing TDs than interceptions, and he did it as a rookie. In 1962, Denver sent a QB to the AFL All-Star game (Frank Tripucka), and even in that season he tossed 25 interceptions compared to 17 TDs.
After such a promising rookie season, Marlin Briscoe surely had proven himself. He would be invited back in 1969 to battle for the starting quarterback position, right? Sadly, the answer was a resounding no. Briscoe would not receive a quarterbacking opportunity with Denver, so he asked for his release prior to the 1969 season. Marlin signed with the Buffalo Bills in 1969 to play the position of flanker/wide receiver. He caught 32 passes in 1969 and earned a spot on the 1970 Pro Bowl team when he broke the 1,000 yard barrier on 57 catches and scored 8 TDs. Miami Dolphins fans remember Marlin Briscoe as a key performer on the Super Bowl teams of the early 1970s. Briscoe signed with Miami before the 1972 undefeated season and he led the Dolphins in receptions in their 1973 championship season. He only threw 9 passes in his career after his promising rookie season.
Although Marlin Briscoe was part of a perfect season and earned two Super Bowl rings, one could only wonder what was going through his mind when he saw that only white quarterbacks were given an opportunity to play the position. When Briscoe signed with Miami, he was not given an opportunity to play the position. He wasn't even the 2nd string quarterback. Earl Morrall was signed to fill that position. Briscoe was not even considered as the 3rd string quarterback. That honor went to the undrafted Jim Del Gaizo.
We could only imagine the frustration that Marlin Briscoe could have felt when he saw that the Denver Broncos signed Pete Liske to be the backup quarterback in 1969. After all, hadn't Briscoe shown enough during his rookie season to deserve a chance to compete? For the record, Briscoe says that the incumbent starting QB, Steve Tensi, was a good man. He apologized to Marlin Briscoe later and said there was nothing he could do. But what about the decision to replace Briscoe with Pete Liske? Liske's only pro experience prior to 1969 was FIVE years earlier, when he went 9 for 18 for 55 yards (and 2 interceptions) for the 1964 New York Jets. Pete Liske was a 27 year old man who had been out of football for 5 years and who had never thrown a TD pass, but he ultimately became Steve Tensi's backup. Fortunately for Pete Liske, his skin color was white.
What was going through Marlin Briscoe's mind when he saw white QBs fail but continue to receive opportunities? Marty Domres, Terry Hanratty, and Bobby Douglass were drafted in 1969 but had poor rookie seasons. These white QBs, however, remained in the NFL for several years. Bobby Douglass, in particular, was a highly inaccurate quarterback and was a much better runner than passer. Yet he survived in the NFL for ten years without being forced to change positions. The NFL draft in 1969 is noteworthy for another reason. There is only one quarterback from that draft who earned a Pro Bowl berth. That was James Harris, a black quarterback who was the 7th QB selected, and he was not taken until the 8th round. It took James Harris five seasons before he was given an opportunity to earn a starting job. Domres, Hanratty, and Douglass did not have to wait nearly as long to receive their chance.
There were many black quarterbacks who paved the way for today's current starters - James Harris, Joe Gilliam, Vince Evans, Doug Williams, and then Warren Moon. But we must not forget Marlin Briscoe, the man who attempted to pave the way but ran into a roadblock.
Sources for this blog: http://www.20yardline.com/current/marlin-briscoe-the-first-black-nfl-starting-quarterback.html and http://www.pro-football-reference.com/ Also, I eagerly await this upcoming film: http://www.marlinbriscoemovie.com/
Monday, January 2, 2012
Houston and Cincinnati - Just Happy To Be Here
The first playoff weekend is normally a glorious time for NFL fans. We are treated to two playoff games on Saturday and two more on Sunday. I can't get as excited this year, for the AFC has given us an opening game between two mediocre teams. Pardon me if I can't muster up any excitement for the Houston Texans and the Cincinnati Bengals, or as I like to call it, the "Just Happy To Be Here" Bowl. The timing of this game should not be lost on NFL fans. The loser of this game will be put out their misery early, while the winner will have extra time to prepare for the 2nd round match-up. They will surely need it.
The Bengals roared off to a 6-2 start, but faded down the stretch. Their schedule stiffened in the second half of the season, and they stumbled to a 9-7 finish. The Bengals are the embodiment of mediocrity. They had a 1-6 record against teams that finished with a winning record, including an 0-4 record against division rivals Baltimore and Pittsburgh. The Bengals benefited from a 7-0 record against teams currently under .500, and they split their 2 games against 8-8 teams.
The Houston Texans got off to a hot start, and they continued to win after starting QB Matt Schaub suffered a season-ending injury. Matt Leinart made a brief cameo before getting injured himself, and the Texans were forced to start rookie T.J. Yates. The Texans won Yates' first two starts and appeared to be heading toward a first round bye, but the bottom fell out. In their final three games, Houston lost to NFL powerhouses Carolina, Indianapolis, and Tennessee. Oh, and they might be down to their fourth QB of the season - Jake Delhomme.
After the conclusion of the Texans/Bengals game, the upstart and exciting Detroit Lions will face off against the offensive juggernaut known as the New Orleans Saints. It's a shame that one of these teams has to lose in week 1 while either Houston or Cincinnati will advance to the second round of the playoffs.
Sunday, January 1, 2012
Ryan Theriot Makes Sense for the Rays (at the right price)
The new year is here, and we are one day closer to Spring Training. The Tampa Bay Rays have made a few acquisitions to solidify the Catcher position (Jose Molina) and to strengthen the bullpen (Josh Lueke and Burke Badenhop). But will the Rays be satisfied going into Spring Training with Ben Zobrist, Sean Rodriguez, Reid Brignac, and Elliot Johnson battling for playing time at 2B and SS? Based on the Rays' recent history, there is every reason to believe that another acquisition will be made to solidify the defense up the middle. The player best suited to fill this role is Ryan Theriot, provided that the price tag is not too high.
The Rays have made several minor free agent signings in recent years to acquire infield talent and organizational depth at Triple-A. Prior to 2009, Adam Kennedy was signed and sent to Triple-A Durham. Kennedy was then traded to Oakland for utility player Joe Dillon, who was resigned prior to the 2010 season. Before the start of 2011, two such players were brought in - Felipe Lopez and Joe Inglett.
Joe Dillon and Felipe Lopez spent some time at Tropicana Field, mainly due to injuries. Adam Kennedy and Joe Inglett, however, weren't needed and were moved in trades. In 2012, the Rays will likely need to strengthen their middle infield. Based on the lefty/righty platoon splits and defensive abilities, a potential signing of Ryan Theriot makes perfect sense.
We must first look at Ryan Theriot's splits against right-handed and left-handed pitchers. As a right-handed batter, Theriot's numbers are noticeably stronger against lefties:
Theriot 2011 vs. LHP - .310 batting average - .356 on-base percentage - .413 slugging percentage
Theriot career vs. LHP - .301 batting average - .373 on-base percentage - .401 slugging percentage
Theriot 2011 vs. RHP - .256 batting average - .307 on-base percentage - .313 slugging percentage
Theriot career vs. RHP - .276 batting average - .334 on-base percentage - .337 slugging percentage
The remaining middle infield candidates have the following offensive splits:
S. Rodriguez 2011 vs. LHP - .273 batting average - .389 on-base percentage - .475 slugging percentage
S. Rodriguez career vs. LHP - .260 batting average - .360 on-base percentage - .422 slugging percentage
S. Rodriguez 2011 vs. RHP - .192 batting average - .280 on-base percentage - .286 slugging percentage
S. Rodriguez career vs. RHP - .212 batting average - .278 on-base percentage - .337 slugging percentage
The above numbers reveal that Sean Rodriguez is a much better hitter against left-handed pitchers. His numbers improved against lefties in 2011, but he actually took a step back against right-handed pitchers. He will need to take a step forward in 2012 to earn more playing time.
The following statistics for Reid Brignac are not good:
Brignac 2011 vs. LHP - .150 batting average - .190 on-base percentage - .150 slugging percentage
Brignac career vs. LHP - .160 batting average - .231 on-base percentage - .189 slugging percentage
Brignac 2011 vs. RHP - .201 batting average - .234 on-base percentage - .234 slugging percentage
Brignac career vs. RHP - .244 batting average - .281 on-base percentage - .351 slugging percentage
Brignac is a very good defensive shortstop, but he has struggled mightily at the plate. His struggles are more glaring against left-handed pitchers. Unfortunately, Elliot Johnson's numbers in 2011 are not much better:
E. Johnson 2011 vs. LHP - .176 batting average - .200 on-base percentage - .330 slugging percentage
E. Johnson 2011 vs. RHP - .207 batting average - .296 on-base percentage - .310 slugging percentage
In recent years, Ben Zobrist has manned 2B against right-handed pitchers. When a left-handed pitcher is on the mound, Ben normally moves to RF and moves Matt Joyce to the bench. Zobrist's numbers look like this:
Zobrist 2011 vs. LHP - .303 batting average - .372 on-base percentage - .535 slugging percentage
Zobrist career vs. LHP - .278 batting average - .365 on-base percentage - .464 slugging percentage
Zobrist 2011 vs. RHP - .256 batting average - .348 on-base percentage - .445 slugging percentage
Zobrist career vs. RHP - .247 batting average - .340 on-base percentage - .420 slugging percentage
There is more to baseball than offense. Glovework is also a huge consideration, especially for a team like Tampa Bay. A high priority is placed on pitching and defense. While Ryan Theriot is a solid 2B (38 defensive runs saved above average per 1200 innings in 2011), his age is showing at SS (19 runs below average in the same statistical category).
Therefore, Ryan Theriot should be a candidate for the Rays' infield, but only at 2B. How would Joe Maddon and the Rays manage such a platoon? Well, it gets a bit complicated.
Against the majority of left-handed starting pitchers, the Rays could start Theriot at 2B and Rodriguez at SS. Ben Zobrist could move to RF, thereby moving Joyce to the bench or to the DH spot.
Agianst the majority of right-handed starting pitchers, the Rays could start Ben Zobrist at 2B and Reid Brignac at SS. Matt Joyce would start in RF.
There are many contingencies to this plan:
(1) Ryan Theriot needs to be available at a reasonable salary. The Rays will not know how much they have to spend until decisions are made regarding 1B and DH. Casey Kotchman could return at 1B, but if he signs elsewhere the Rays need to fill that hole. Johnny Damon is a candidate to return, but the Rays need to wait for both of these dominoes to fall before turning to their middle infield. Further complicating the situation is the possibility that a starting pitcher could be moved in order to obtain a 1B prospect. Moving a pitcher would impact the 2012 payroll and it may free money up for a middle infielder.
(2) Reid Brignac needs to turn things around after a horrible offensive season in 2011. His defense is very good and valuable to a young pitching staff, but he fails to get on base or hit for power. I note that Elliot Johnson is not mentioned in the above platoon situations, but he will have an opportunity to win a job with the Rays. As with Brignac, Elliot Johnson needs to improve offensively to earn a spot in a platoon.
Even if Theriot is not signed, there will be plenty of competition in the middle infield for the Rays. Sean Rodriguez will be seeking to earn more consistent playing time, and he will be given a shot to win the SS job. Reid Brignac will not have anything handed to him. He knows the challenge, which is to improve his command of the plate. Elliot Johnson will be trying to win playing time at SS, and he will be trying to show his value as a utility infielder.
If Theriot is signed, then it will improve the competition in Spring Training. It will give the Rays many interesting options in 2012, and he could be a key cog in their drive toward the 2012 postseason.
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