Sunday, January 22, 2012

Why Fausto Carmona Lied About His Age

ESPN recently reported that Cleveland Indians pitcher Fausto Carmona was arrested by authorities in the Dominican Republic under accusations that he used a false identity to try to obtain a U.S. visa.  Since then, we have learned that Carmona's actual name is Roberto Hernandez Heredia, and the family of the real Fausto Carmona had been monetarily compensated by Hernandez in exchange for use of his identity. It has also been revealed that Hernandez is three years older than his assumed age. That would make him 31 years of age rather than 28. Some sports fans have reacted to this news with collective indifference, but lying about one's age can reap substantial professional and monetary benefits.

Young baseball players are in a race of sorts. They are racing to get to the major leagues as quickly as possible. There are obvious financial benefits to playing on a major league roster. If a player is talented enough to make it to the major leagues and stay there, then they eventually will become eligible for arbitration. The player can then earn incremental salary increases until becoming a free agent. They can take their talents to the open market and earn whatever another team is willing to pay. Since teams are hesitant to invest a great deal of money or years in an older player, the optimal way for a player to earn a large amount of money is to get to the major leagues at an early age. Therefore, if some unscrupulous players can find a method to make it appear that they are younger than their actual age, some players will game the system. Hopefully, the examples of Roberto Hernandez Heredia, Juan Oviedo (formerly known as Leo Nunez), Miguel Tejada and others are only isolated incidents.

Baseball scouts are always on the lookout for teenage prospects who have the potential to play at the highest level. If two players have similar abilities but one player is three years older than the other, the scouts would devote more resources and show more patience toward the younger player. Ability is the key factor in determining which player is a major league 'prospect', but age is certainly as factor as well. A younger player will be seen as having a higher 'ceiling', or more room for growth and improvement. For example, the player formerly known as Fausto Carmona was purported to be 19 years of age when he pitched in the South Atlantic League (Single A Sally League). He had a fine season at that level, and his ability and his young age resulted in Carmona's rated as the #76 Minor League Prospect by Baseball America. If it was known that Carmona was 22 rather than 19, it is likely that he would not crack the top 100.

A closer look at the 18 and 19 year pitchers in the 2003 South Atlantic League reveals that over 40% of those teenage pitchers eventually made it to the major leagues (13 of 31). However, Carmona's real age was 22. Of the 94 Sally League pitchers in 2003 who were listed at 22 years of age by www.baseball-reference.com, only 18 (fewer than 25%) eventually threw a pitch in the major leagues.  It would therefore appear that a player's path to the major leagues would be greased more quickly if they were thought to be younger.

Not only did the teenage Sally League pitcher earn eventual major league promotions at a higher rate, their dollars earned is substantially higher .... almost ridiculously higher. The 22-year old Salley League pitchers who eventually played in the majors would only be known to the most die-hard baseball fan. This list includes Juan Lara, Jose Capellan, Jason Waddell, Bryan Bullington, Jailen Peguero, Mark McLemore, Jesse Carlson, Anderson Garcia, Jeff Ridgway, Alfredo Simon, Ehren Wasserman, Sean Tracey, Darren Clarke, Darrell Rasner, Mike O'Connor, and Chris Smith. The other two pitchers who were 22 years of age in the 2003 Sally League who earned over a million dollars during their major league career are John Maine ($6,741,000) and Daniel Cabrera ($8,010,000). Incidentally, both pitchers are still looking for work. It will be difficult for them since they have already turned 30.

The 18 and 19 year old prospects who pitched in the Salley League that season is a virtual who's who list of the game's finest young pitchers. They are also well-compensated. The Marlins' Josh Johnson is on that list, and he will earn over 40-million dollars by the end of 2013. Matt Cain is on that list also. He just agreed to a contract with San Francisco worth $15 million. By the end of the 2012 season, Cain will have earned over 30-million dollars throughout the course of his career. Others who have earned (or will earn) over 30-million dollars are Scott Kazmir, Cole Hamels, and Jon Lester.

If you are Fausto Carmona (or Roberto Hernandez Heredia) which group would you rather be in? Would you want to be included in a group of pitchers who barely made it to the major leagues, or would you want to be seen as a young, can't miss prospect? A fake identity can do that for you. Instead of having a ball club scrutinize you as a 22 year old ballplayer (he's got decent stuff, but he he's already reached his ceiling), you can have scouts salivate over your potential (he's dominating Single-A, and he's only 19 years old). Through the use of identity theft, Carmona went from being one of the oldest pitcher on his Single-A team to being the youngest. That type of deception, if undetected, can certainly help your career advancement. Prior to the 2012 season, Carmona had earned over 15-million dollars playing Major League Baseball. In this offseason, he signed a deal which would give him 7-million in 2012, with the Indians holding team options in 2013 (9-million) and 2014 (12 million).

Which leads to my final point. Sometimes it isn't enough to prove that you are a star. You must also prove that you are a star at a young age. If you look at the 13 most lucrative free agent contracts in the history of the game, they were all signed by players who had debuted in the major leagues before their 23rd birthday. There are a few reasons for this. The most obvious reason is that the great players show their greatness at a young age, and they are paid their true value in an open market. A related reason is the fact that such players who make an early major league debut are more likely to hit the free agency market when they are in their mid-to-late twenties. Such stars are in a great position to take full advantage of the free agency market because they still have many productive years. This provides an added incentive for a dishonest player to game the system.

In closing, there have been two glaring ways in which a baseball player can cheat the system on the front end and the back end of their careers. The rampant use of steroids and performance-enhancing drugs assisted several players in extending their careers. The increase in home runs helped these players make substantial amounts of money through their careers, and they earned money in their late 30s and early 40s that they never would have earned without this artificial enhancement. By the same token, dishonest players have cheated the system on the front end of their careers and throughout by lying about their age. This is a serious problem because the players who are honest about their age and who have avoided performance-enhancers are at a disadvantage. It is likely that honest minor leaguers missed out on opportunities because a ball club chose to promote a 'younger' player with more potential. It is also highly likely that clean players lost jobs at the major league level because they did not have the 'power' potential of a player who benefited from the use of performance-enhancers. That is why it is important for Major League Baseball to implement strong measures to ensure the integrity of the game.  To that end, a firm stance must be taken against the former Fausto Carmona and Leo Nunez.

No comments:

Post a Comment