Ryan Theriot Makes Sense for the Rays (at the right price)

The new year is here, and we are one day closer to Spring Training.  The Tampa Bay Rays have made a few acquisitions to solidify the Catcher position (Jose Molina) and to strengthen the bullpen (Josh Lueke and Burke Badenhop).  But will the Rays be satisfied going into Spring Training with Ben Zobrist, Sean Rodriguez, Reid Brignac, and Elliot Johnson battling for playing time at 2B and SS?  Based on the Rays' recent history, there is every reason to believe that another acquisition will be made to solidify the defense up the middle.  The player best suited to fill this role is Ryan Theriot, provided that the price tag is not too high.

The Rays have made several minor free agent signings in recent years to acquire infield talent and organizational depth at Triple-A.  Prior to 2009, Adam Kennedy was signed and sent to Triple-A Durham.  Kennedy was then traded to Oakland for utility player Joe Dillon, who was resigned prior to the 2010 season.  Before the start of 2011, two such players were brought in - Felipe Lopez and Joe Inglett.

Joe Dillon and Felipe Lopez spent some time at Tropicana Field, mainly due to injuries.  Adam Kennedy and Joe Inglett, however, weren't needed and were moved in trades.  In 2012, the Rays will likely need to strengthen their middle infield.  Based on the lefty/righty platoon splits and defensive abilities, a potential signing of Ryan Theriot makes perfect sense.

We must first look at Ryan Theriot's splits against right-handed and left-handed pitchers.  As a right-handed batter, Theriot's numbers are noticeably stronger against lefties:

Theriot 2011 vs. LHP - .310 batting average - .356 on-base percentage - .413 slugging percentage

Theriot career vs. LHP - .301 batting average - .373 on-base percentage - .401 slugging percentage

Theriot 2011 vs. RHP - .256 batting average - .307 on-base percentage - .313 slugging percentage

Theriot career vs. RHP - .276 batting average - .334 on-base percentage - .337 slugging percentage

The remaining middle infield candidates have the following offensive splits:

S. Rodriguez 2011 vs. LHP - .273 batting average - .389 on-base percentage - .475 slugging percentage

S. Rodriguez career vs. LHP - .260 batting average - .360 on-base percentage - .422 slugging percentage

S. Rodriguez 2011 vs. RHP - .192 batting average - .280 on-base percentage - .286 slugging percentage

S. Rodriguez career vs. RHP - .212 batting average - .278 on-base percentage - .337 slugging percentage

The above numbers reveal that Sean Rodriguez is a much better hitter against left-handed pitchers.  His numbers improved against lefties in 2011, but he actually took a step back against right-handed pitchers.  He will need to take a step forward in 2012 to earn more playing time.

The following statistics for Reid Brignac are not good:

Brignac 2011 vs. LHP - .150 batting average - .190 on-base percentage - .150 slugging percentage

Brignac career vs. LHP - .160 batting average - .231 on-base percentage - .189 slugging percentage

Brignac 2011 vs. RHP - .201 batting average - .234 on-base percentage - .234 slugging percentage

Brignac career vs. RHP - .244 batting average - .281 on-base percentage - .351 slugging percentage

Brignac is a very good defensive shortstop, but he has struggled mightily at the plate.  His struggles are more glaring against left-handed pitchers.  Unfortunately, Elliot Johnson's numbers in 2011 are not much better:

E. Johnson 2011 vs. LHP - .176 batting average - .200 on-base percentage - .330 slugging percentage

E. Johnson 2011 vs. RHP - .207 batting average - .296 on-base percentage - .310 slugging percentage

In recent years, Ben Zobrist has manned 2B against right-handed pitchers.  When a left-handed pitcher is on the mound, Ben normally moves to RF and moves Matt Joyce to the bench.  Zobrist's numbers look like this:

Zobrist 2011 vs. LHP - .303 batting average - .372 on-base percentage - .535 slugging percentage

Zobrist career vs. LHP - .278 batting average - .365 on-base percentage - .464 slugging percentage

Zobrist 2011 vs. RHP - .256 batting average - .348 on-base percentage - .445 slugging percentage

Zobrist career vs. RHP - .247 batting average - .340 on-base percentage - .420 slugging percentage

There is more to baseball than offense.  Glovework is also a huge consideration, especially for a team like Tampa Bay.  A high priority is placed on pitching and defense.  While Ryan Theriot is a solid 2B (38 defensive runs saved above average per 1200 innings in 2011), his age is showing at SS (19 runs below average in the same statistical category).

Therefore, Ryan Theriot should be a candidate for the Rays' infield, but only at 2B.  How would Joe Maddon and the Rays manage such a platoon?  Well, it gets a bit complicated.

Against the majority of left-handed starting pitchers, the Rays could start Theriot at 2B and Rodriguez at SS.  Ben Zobrist could move to RF, thereby moving Joyce to the bench or to the DH spot.

Agianst the majority of right-handed starting pitchers, the Rays could start Ben Zobrist at 2B and Reid Brignac at SS.  Matt Joyce would start in RF.

There are many contingencies to this plan:  

(1) Ryan Theriot needs to be available at a reasonable salary.  The Rays will not know how much they have to spend until decisions are made regarding 1B and DH.  Casey Kotchman could return at 1B, but if he signs elsewhere the Rays need to fill that hole.  Johnny Damon is a candidate to return, but the Rays need to wait for both of these dominoes to fall before turning to their middle infield.  Further complicating the situation is the possibility that a starting pitcher could be moved in order to obtain a 1B prospect.  Moving a pitcher would impact the 2012 payroll and it may free money up for a middle infielder.

(2) Reid Brignac needs to turn things around after a horrible offensive season in 2011.  His defense is very good and valuable to a young pitching staff, but he fails to get on base or hit for power.  I note that Elliot Johnson is not mentioned in the above platoon situations, but he will have an opportunity to win a job with the Rays.  As with Brignac, Elliot Johnson needs to improve offensively to earn a spot in a platoon.

Even if Theriot is not signed, there will be plenty of competition in the middle infield for the Rays.  Sean Rodriguez will be seeking to earn more consistent playing time, and he will be given a shot to win the SS job.  Reid Brignac will not have anything handed to him.  He knows the challenge, which is to improve his command of the plate.  Elliot Johnson will be trying to win playing time at SS, and he will be trying to show his value as a utility infielder.  

If Theriot is signed, then it will improve the competition in Spring Training.  It will give the Rays many interesting options in 2012, and he could be a key cog in their drive toward the 2012 postseason.